Bryan Tilley would rather face a tornado than lightning.
He’s had a few near misses with lightning, but has actually chased some tornadoes.
‘You can see where a tornado is going,? says Tilley. ‘With lightning, you don’t know where it’s coming from until it hits you.?
As a meteorologist, Tilley tracks tornadoes, thunderstorms and more, albeit from the relative safety of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service building in White Lake.
It’s a rainy Monday morning, the tenth day in a row of significant precipitation (.01 inch of rain or more). The record for most consecutive days of measurable rain is 18, set in 1884 and the former Brandon Township resident gives a tour of the NWS facility, explaining that it is his and his co-workers? responsibility to maintain data collection efforts and use data to make weather forecasts for the public. The most important job, he says, is to get the word out if severe weather develops.
‘There is a perception that weather guys can get away with being wrong,? says Tilley, 40. ‘But we track how we’re doing and we take a lot of pride in being accurate.?
He points to a large board showing data on flash flood warnings, thunderstorm warnings, winter storm warnings, tornado warnings and more. Information is tracked from the 80s to the present, showing improvement in storm notification by the NWS in all areas. For example, in 1988, the NWS averaged a lead time of 8.9 minutes on severe thunderstorm warnings. Now, they average a 22.5 minute lead on warning the public.
There are 23 employees at the southeast Michigan NWS office, including equipment technicians, an information technology officer, a hydrologist, and nine meteorologists. They use Doppler radar, weather balloons, and a weather sattelite, among other tools, to forecast the weather a week in advance for the Great Lakes area.
Tilley was in seventh grade when he decided he would like to be a meteorologist after his science class did a weather unit.
‘I was always the one on the porch watching storms when everyone else was inside,? notes Tilley, who recalls one memorable occasion when lightning struck a tree, ‘blowing it to smithereens.?
He graduated from Brandon High School in 1984 and went on to Central Michigan University, taking a variety of classes in geography, math, and science, including chemistry and physics to receive a bachelor’s degree in meteorology in 1988. He received a master’s degree in 1991 from Oklahoma University, specializing in thunderstorms.
While at OU, Tilley chased tornadoes.
‘If the weather was right, we’d hit the road and go to where weather was forming,? he recalls. ‘I’ve seen some small tornadoes.?
Now, he stands near two pictures on a wall in the NWS conference room? one displays a waterspout, the smallest classification of tornado and the type he saw in Oklahoma. Tilley notes that 98 percent of tornadoes are small, ranging from 50-100 yards wide, with 50-60 mph winds, and strong enough to break tree limbs, remove shingles, tip boats. Every season, southeast Michigan typically sees up to 10 of these waterspouts.
The Fujita scale, in which tornadoes are classified, is similar to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, with the most severe tornadoes classified as an F5. However, unlike hurricanes which are based on wind speed, tornadoes are rated based on the damage they leave behind.
He points to the second picture, an F2 tornado that touched down in Hartland on May 21, 2001, uprooting trees, throwing golf carts and cars and causing considerable damage to a home with its 110 mph-winds. The picture shows a much darker, wider tornado? this one cut a path 200 yards wide for 10 miles.
An F4 tornado happens less than once a decade and an F5 is much rarer. The last F5 tornado in this area was in the Flint Beecher District on June 8, 1953, cutting a half-mile wide path of destruction for 26 miles with winds in excess of 250 mph, and killing 116 people, the eight deadliest tornado in U.S. history and the last tornado to kill more than 100 people according to Flinthistory.com.
Tornadoes can occur at any time of year, but peak season in northern states is late spring and all summer.
Tilley says the busiest time for the staff at the NWS White Lake office is April through October, with June a peak time for severe thunderstorm warnings.
‘Winter weather can be busy, but it doesn’t require as much staffing as thunderstorms,? Tilley says. ‘I’ve been stuck here in winter storms.?
One particular memorable instance was in January 2000, when a storm dumped an average of a foot of snow on southeast Michigan. Tilley had arrived for his shift at 4 p.m. and wasn’t able to leave until 10 a.m. the next morning.
Tilley, who is married and has children, says the most difficult part of his job is working night shifts, weekends and holidays. The staff is on a rotating shift, working 10-days on the day shift, followed by 10 days on the afternoon shift and then 10 days on the night shift.
‘You get used to not being used to anything,? he says, smiling. As he speaks, the power goes out. The cause is not the weather, but construction nearby. The auxiliary power kicks on at the facility.
Tilley says the best part of his job is a new problem everyday.
‘It’s difficult to get bored,? he explains. ‘We do a forecast everyday. It’s like putting a puzzle together. Solving that puzzle is the problem of the day. We have to get an answer to the forecast, regardless of what the weather is currently like.?