By Joseph Goral
Staff Writer
jgoral@mihomepaper.com
LAKE ORION — Lake Orion schools are projecting student enrollment to decline slightly over the next five years, just under 2%, said Assistant Superintendent of Human Resources Adam Weldon.
Weldon gave an enrollment projection presentation during the Lake Orion Community Schools Board of Education workshop on Feb. 26.
According to Weldon, the district’s incoming and outgoing students at all grade levels, along with the number of incoming Kindergartners and outgoing high school seniors, are the two largest factors in the district’s enrollment count.
Using these factors and current numbers across the district, he said enrollment is projected to decline from this year to the 2029-30 school year. K-12 enrollment is projected to decline by slightly under 2% over that time.
The district is also projecting a decline by slightly under 1% at the elementary level, and a decline by more than 5% at the high-school level, according to the presentation.
The only level predicted to rise in enrollment is the middle-school level at 1.8%. The projections fall in line with what is occurring across the district, Weldon said.
Currently, the district’s elementary buildings are operating “very efficiently” at over 92% capacity each. Class sizes range from 22.37 to 26 students, Weldon said.
Middle school capacity percentages are harder to calculate because of electives, schedules and how the number of students in each room fluctuates hourly, according to the presentation,. Looking at the number of core classrooms being used and student numbers by grade level, the district concluded Oakview and Waldon middle schools are operating at a higher desired capacity rate than Scripps Middle School.
Although LOCS is a school-of-choice district, which allows LOCS to bring in non-resident students, Weldon said he wants to keep these students at 10% of the population.
The number of single-family building permits in Orion Township have steeply declined from around 190 in the mid-2010s to around 30 in 2023, according to Weldon’s presentation. The number of single-family permits and a large economic boom are two significant factors in predicting population increases.
“While there is building occurring, it doesn’t forecast any large population boom,” Weldon said.
Weldon pointed to Moceri’s town-home developments along M-24 in Lake Orion as an example of developments that will not bring a large number of children to the district.
Enrollment levels reflect Michigan’s birth rate as well. Weldon said the state’s live births have steadily declined over the years, and 2023 was the first time Michigan had under 100,000 births since the 1940s.
Weldon attributed the changes to different career focuses, later marriages, more travel and other factors including “different priorities for this generation.”
To read more about the district’s Fall enrollment, search “LOCS school board reviews Fall enrollment numbers” on lakeorionreview.com.